Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-02-01 1.430231 1.492728 1.557518 1.629905 1.708773 1.792379 1.888086
2026-02-08 1.344569 1.427125 1.515476 1.617663 1.733373 1.861282 2.014724
2026-02-15 1.281058 1.376239 1.480487 1.604220 1.748548 1.913497 2.119184
2026-02-22 1.240932 1.346672 1.464773 1.608117 1.779765 1.981971 2.243453
2026-03-01 1.187398 1.297878 1.423020 1.577405 1.765923 1.993183 2.295553
2026-03-08 1.146154 1.260756 1.392194 1.556740 1.761280 2.013201 2.357599
2026-03-15 1.113622 1.232044 1.369416 1.543739 1.764092 2.041111 2.430002
2026-03-22 1.101475 1.226632 1.373724 1.563346 1.807820 2.122835 2.579773
2026-03-29 1.094259 1.226472 1.383873 1.590012 1.861180 2.219663 2.758170
2026-04-05 1.072343 1.207385 1.369633 1.584540 1.871413 2.257944 2.854265
2026-04-12 1.054097 1.192055 1.359282 1.583251 1.886589 2.303195 2.963771
2026-04-19 1.024349 1.161507 1.328664 1.554070 1.862115 2.290306 2.981281
2026-04-26 1.004383 1.143130 1.313517 1.545505 1.866652 2.320892 3.073110
2026-05-03 0.984914 1.124771 1.297711 1.535265 1.868056 2.346516 3.158720
2026-05-10 0.965902 1.106426 1.281280 1.523402 1.866325 2.366900 3.236876
2026-05-17 0.954558 1.097446 1.276587 1.527084 1.886668 2.421592 3.379534
2026-05-24 0.930882 1.072061 1.249685 1.499208 1.859691 2.400855 3.384290
2026-05-31 0.911953 1.052384 1.229805 1.480411 1.845227 2.398925 3.423288
2026-06-07 0.896659 1.037065 1.215285 1.468570 1.840476 2.412026 3.491559
2026-06-14 0.893710 1.037662 1.221857 1.486443 1.880855 2.500612 3.716233
2026-06-21 0.893312 1.041505 1.232773 1.510718 1.931984 2.610621 4.001229
2026-06-28 0.882080 1.030785 1.223646 1.505740 1.937357 2.642758 4.126325
2026-07-05 0.872701 1.022307 1.217329 1.504568 1.948529 2.685512 4.280841